"Criswell Shannon Predicts"

In all seriousness, this is what I believe will happen:

  1. Iraqi command will be effectively destroyed within a one to two month window.
  2. No independently confirmed WMDs will be found.
  3. The US public will be told that the war is over (and believe it), although it will continue for at least one to two years as Iraqi militia and guerrilla groups continue to fight both “for Saddam” and for independence from US occupation.
  4. Massive amounts of private contracts for rebuilding, policing, and oil will be given to companies loyal to the US government, at the cost of the US taxpayer.
  5. A Palestinian nation will be carved out of Iraq.
  6. The UN will act like this never happened and welcome the US back.
  7. Rumsfield and the Bush regime will continue to threaten Iran and Syria, but no full-scale conflict will arise before the election. North Korea will not be threatened seriously.
  8. Over the next year and a half the economic and civil liberties damages will become clear and Bush will lose the next election.
  9. “Quality of life” as far as poverty and rights issues will continue to decline in America in relation to the rest of the Western world.
  10. The anti-war movement will feel “defeated” because of America's victory* in Iraq, but feel “vindicated” when war doesn't spread to the rest of the Middle East, and “victorious” when Bush is defeated.
  11. US puppet control of Iraq will radicalize over a four to six year window and religious extremists far worse than Saddam will seize that nation.
  12. Terrorist forces will build up and within a five to ten year window launch another severe attack on US soil. The US intelligence community will again be implicated in this attack.
  13. Iraq will be threatened and invaded.

End results:

  1. Bush et al are very very very very rich.
  2. There are a lot of dead people. The overwhelming majority are not American.
  3. The American people get poorer every year and the lower classes grow to massive proportions.

That said, the above is the “through rose coloured glasses” version. That's how it's “supposed” to turn out. I could give nightmare scenarios as well, but if I was a betting man, the above is where my money would go. OK… I can't resist. A few of the nightmare scenarios:

  1. Other Middle Eastern countries become involved and supply troops and gear, including nuclear weaponry from Iran. Iraq is able to hold off American invaders and this turns into another Vietnam. The US is defeated and humiliated publicly.
  2. Conflict with Russia and China escalates into first economic war, then a military standoff. First shots are fired, and we find ourselves playing with our big guns from the 60s and 70s. Russia and China destroy 50% of the US infrastructure before the war ends with no apparent victor.
  3. North Korea nukes someone for [insert reason here].
  4. SARS turns out to be a serious medical threat (we won't know for at least a few weeks) and 10% – 25% of the world population dies within one year in a plague of Biblical proportions… Because it's the apocalyse. God returns to judge the wicked and this world ends.

* Is it really a victory when the world's strongest nation forces one of the world's weakest nations into submission?

Wow Shannon, that's really annoying! What is it, 1997 on Geocities? Retroweb is NOT cool!

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